Recently, the domestic adipic acid market has undergone a high-level correction. Prices have gradually declined following a sharp surge in March. The industrial supply and demand landscape features multi-dimensional game dynamics, alongside new policy changes in international trade. The overall market performance has drawn widespread attention across the industry. As a core raw material for polymer materials including nylon 66 and polyurethane, adipic acid covers multiple industrial chains such as petrochemicals, synthetic fibers and engineering plastics, and its price fluctuations exert transmission effects on numerous downstream industries.

In terms of price movement, as of April 16, the benchmark price of domestic adipic acid stood at 10133.33 RMB per ton, a decrease of 4.7% compared with 10833.33 RMB per ton on April 1 and 4.1% lower than the price on April 15. Reviewing the recent trend, adipic acid prices surged sharply by 26% in March driven by cost factors. Entering April, the market entered a high-level correction phase, with a cumulative drop of approximately 2.46% over the past week, presenting a market trend of prior growth followed by stabilization and high-level volatility. In the medium-long term price range, the average price of adipic acid over the past three months reached 9218 RMB per ton, with the lowest at 7333 RMB per ton and the highest at 11033 RMB per ton. Current prices remain at a high level for the year.

Cost factors serve as one of the core drivers affecting recent adipic acid prices. Influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and high crude oil prices, upstream raw material pure benzene prices have remained strong, providing solid cost support for adipic acid. As a key feedstock for adipic acid production, tight supply in the pure benzene market, continuous inventory decline at ports and slowing import arrivals have sustained high pure benzene prices, which indirectly prevents substantial declines in adipic acid prices. Meanwhile, production margins of adipic acid remain under pressure with negative industrial profit margins, and cost pressure underpins overall market prices to a certain extent.

On the supply side, the domestic adipic acid industry is characterized by coexistence of new capacity expansion and plant maintenance. Total domestic adipic acid capacity is expected to reach 4.455 million tons in 2026. The overall industrial operating rate hovers around 60% to 70%, a historically low level. Some outdated facilities remain permanently shut down, resulting in overall tight market supply, while gradually commissioned new capacity is easing such tightness. New drying production units have recently entered trial production with greatly reduced energy consumption and exhaust emissions superior to national standards. In addition, large-scale new capacity is scheduled to come online in the second half of the year, which will further expand market supply and impose certain downward pressure on prices in the long run. Following industrial reshuffling, capacity concentration continues to rise, with limited effective producers and the market competition pattern evolving toward centralization.

Demand side shows obvious structural differentiation, with weak traditional demand contrasting against remarkable growth in emerging consumption sectors. Traditional downstream consumption of adipic acid mainly includes polyurethane and shoe sole liquid raw materials. At present, operating rates of these sectors are below 50%, leading to sluggish procurement demand and strong resistance to high raw material prices, which restricts upward price potential to a certain degree. Emerging industries have become major drivers of demand growth, with rapidly rising consumption in sectors including nylon 66 and biodegradable plastic PBAT. It is estimated that newly added annual adipic acid consumption will reach about 300,000 tons in 2026. Nevertheless, constrained by downstream supply-demand relations and industrial competition, operating rates of newly built emerging capacity may fall short of expectations. Slow demand release is insufficient to fully absorb incremental upstream supply.

In international trade, domestic adipic acid exports are facing new challenges. In April, Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat announced the launch of the second anti-dumping sunset review on adipic acid imported from China, covering products under specific tariff codes. This review will exert certain impacts on China’s adipic acid exports to Brazil. Furthermore, following the preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Chinese adipic acid by the European Union and the official implementation of carbon tariffs, China’s adipic acid exports to the EU are projected to shrink. The industry is gradually diversifying export destinations to promising regional markets including neighboring Asian countries, the Middle East and Africa, with Asia accounting for over half of total exports.

In terms of industrial transformation, guided by national dual-carbon goals and stringent environmental regulations, the domestic adipic acid industry is accelerating green and high-end upgrading. Traditional production processes feature high energy consumption and difficult waste treatment. Stricter environmental laws have prompted increased environmental investment and technological upgrading, raising the proportion of cleaner and more efficient production technologies. Meanwhile, the industrialization of bio-based adipic acid is progressing rapidly and has entered the 10,000-ton-level demonstration verification stage. With low-carbon and eco-friendly advantages, its penetration in emerging fields such as high-end nylon 66 and 3D printing materials keeps growing, opening up high-value industrial segments. It also serves as a vital approach for enterprises to cope with trade barriers and enhance core competitiveness.

For future market outlook, in the short term, supported by cost fundamentals and tight supply, adipic acid prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility without drastic fluctuations. Market participants shall closely track pure benzene price trends and downstream restocking progress. In the medium to long term, with successive commissioning of new capacity in the second half of the year and underwhelming downstream demand growth, sustained market oversupply will drive gradual price declines. The full-year average price in 2026 is projected to fluctuate around 7000 RMB per ton. For downstream enterprises with rigid procurement demand, phased purchasing is recommended to avoid high-price chasing. Attention shall also be paid to industrial technological innovation and development of emerging application scenarios to seize structural market opportunities.